Potential GDP and Natural Rate of Unemployment (Quarterly) [51137-ST2]

Source: Congressional Budget Office. The quarterly estimates of potential GDP are constructed by interpolating the data in the Annual Data sheet. The natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment arising from all sources except fluctuations in the overall demand for goods and services. The natural rate incorporates the effects of structural factors that have boosted the natural rate since 2008. (CBO did not make explicit adjustments to the natural rate for structural factors before the recent downturn.) Estimates of potential GDP are based on the underlying long-term rate of unemployment, which includes only long-lasting structural factors. GDP = gross domestic product.